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Penafiel vs Lusitania FC Lourosa Preview & H2H

Sun 15 Nov 2026 · UTC15:30

LLWWW1st

4thDWDDL

Win probability · draw 24%
48%28%
Table · 22 v 19 pts
1st4th
H2H wins · 1 draw · 2 meetings
10
Goals per game · 10 v 10 games
2.201.50

Liga Portugal 2Matchday 11Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Prediction · model vs market

48%Model · draw 24%28%

Projected goals
1.63 – 1.19total 2.82 · from goals per game
Most likely scores
1–1 11.6%1–0 9.7%2–1 9.4%
OutcomeModel
Penafiel win48%
Draw24%
Lusitania FC Lourosa win28%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams to score56%
Penafiel clean sheet30%
Lusitania FC Lourosa clean sheet20%

Model: Poisson rates from goals scored and conceded per game (not expected goals). How we calculate this

Season comparison

before kick-off
Penafielall competitionsLusitania FC Lourosa
  1. Goal markets & scoring rates · 15 games each
  2. 2.8Goals per game (both sides)2.33
  3. 80%Over 1.573%
  4. 53%Over 2.547%
  5. 27%Over 3.527%
  6. 47%Both teams scored60%
  7. 20%Clean sheets33%
  8. 33%Failed to score20%
  9. Penafiel at home v Lusitania FC Lourosa away
  10. 9Played9
  11. 3Won4
  12. 0Drawn4
  13. 6Lost1
  14. 8-11Goals (for-against)12-7
  15. 1Points per game1.78
  16. 22%Over 2.544%
  17. 22%Clean sheets44%
  18. 1st half vs 2nd half scoring · 15 games each
  19. 12-61st-half goals (for-against)12-8
  20. 12-122nd-half goals (for-against)10-5
  21. 50%Goals after half-time45%
  22. 73%Goal before half-time87%
  23. 6-5-4Half-time W-D-L7-5-3
  24. Corners & cards (last 15 matches each)
  25. 3.9Corners won / game4.6
  26. 3.9Corners conceded / game4.5
  27. 27%Over 9.5 corners33%
  28. 40%Won the corner count53%
  29. 2.8Yellow cards / game2.47
  30. 5.6Cards in the match / game5.33
  31. 73%Over 3.5 cards87%
  32. 2Red cards (total)3

How we calculate this

What stands out

  • 3wins in a row

    Penafiel have won their last 3 matches.all competitions, before this match

  • 8no clean sheet

    Lusitania FC Lourosa have conceded in each of their last 8 matches.all competitions, before this match

  • 33%after 75′

    Lusitania FC Lourosa scored 10 of their last 30 goals from the 76th minute on.last 20 matches

Where to watch

kick-off
Portugal
Sport TV Multiscreen

Head-to-head

2 meetings on record since 2025

1-1-0Penafiel W-D-L · goals 2:0

1 PEN1 draws0 LLFC
Goals per meeting
1
  1. Penafiel2–0Lusitania FC LourosaLiga Portugal 2
  2. Lusitania FC Lourosa0–0PenafielLiga Portugal 2
  1. Lusitania FC LourosanextPenafielLiga Portugal 2

Table

Liga Portugal 2 2026/2027
#TeamPW-D-LGoalsGDPtsLast 5
1Penafiel107-1-222:10+1222WLWWW
2Sporting CP II107-1-216:8+822LWWWD
3Benfica II106-2-214:8+620WWDWW
4Lusitania FC Lourosa105-4-115:9+619WDDDL
5União de Leiria105-2-316:13+317DLDWW
6Académica105-1-416:13+316LWWLD
18Feirense101-2-73:11-85LLDLW
If Penafiel win
PEN 1st · LLFC 4th25 v 19 pts
If they draw
PEN 1st · LLFC 3rd23 v 20 pts
If Lusitania FC Lourosa win
PEN 1st · LLFC 3rd22 v 22 pts

What a result changes: one-goal margins, other results unchanged. Last 5 reads old → new. Full table

Form

last 10 matches of each side, all competitions
Penafiel8d restPEN +1d rest7d restLusitania FC Lourosa
  1. 2-0W23 Aug
  2. 3-0W30 Aug
  3. 4-1W5 Sep
  4. 2-1W12 Sep
  5. 2-1W19 Sep
  6. 1-2L9 Oct
  7. 0-1L17 Oct
  8. 4-1W24 Oct
  9. 1-0W2 Nov
  10. 3-2W7 Nov

8-0-2goals 22:92.40pts/game

Bar: goals scored.
Score: own goals first.Pts/game: green ≥ 2.0 · blue ≥ 1.5 · amber ≥ 1.0 · red below

  1. 2-2D22 Aug
  2. 2-0W29 Aug
  3. 2-1W7 Sep
  4. 2-1W14 Sep
  5. 3-1W20 Sep
  6. 1-1D11 Oct
  7. 2-1W18 Oct
  8. 2-2D25 Oct
  9. 1-1D1 Nov
  10. 0-1L8 Nov

5-4-1goals 17:111.90pts/game

  1. AChaves3–2
  2. HFeirense1–0
  3. AFarense4–1
  4. HLeca0–1
  5. HAVS1–2

latest 5

  1. AFeirense0–1
  2. HFarense1–1
  3. AFelgueiras 19322–2
  4. HOs Limianos2–1
  5. HChaves1–1
Show older matches
  1. AUD Oliveirense2–1
  2. AFelgueiras 19322–1
  3. HAcadémica4–1
  4. APorto II3–0
  5. HSporting CP II2–0

older

  1. AMadalena3–1
  2. ASporting CP II2–1
  3. HAVS2–1
  4. AAcadémica2–0
  5. HTorreense2–2

Match info

Competition
Liga Portugal 2
Season
2026/2027 · Matchday 11 of 34
Kick-off
Venue
Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
Capacity
5,230 · grass
PEN coach
José Aira Lindoso (1.47 PPG)
LLFC coach
Ricardo Macedo Silva (1.48 PPG)
Hashtag
#PENLLFC

About Match

Penafiel v Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Liga Portugal 2, Regular Season is scheduled on Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril.

Penafiel sit 1st on 22 points, while Lusitania FC Lourosa are 4th on 19 points. Lusitania FC Lourosa are 4th in the table but 10th on points from the last five league games. Across 2 previous meetings on record, Penafiel won 1 and Lusitania FC Lourosa won 0, with 1 draw (1 goals per game).

Penafiel enter on 8 days of rest since their previous completed match, compared with 7 days for Lusitania FC Lourosa (+1d rest advantage). Penafiel have 1 confirmed squad absence, including Teddy Alloh, while Lusitania FC Lourosa have 1, including Josué Sá. Confirmed broadcast coverage includes Sport TV Multiscreen.

Penafiel — live results and scheduleLusitania FC Lourosa — live results and scheduleHow we calculate this

Team news

1 v 1 confirmed out

Penafiel1 listed out

  • Teddy AllohWrist Fracture · 6 missed · 2.2 pts/game with him starting (10), 1.38 without (16)

Lusitania FC Lourosa1 listed out

  • Josué SáTorn Knee Ligaments · 20 missed · 1.2 pts/game with him starting (10), 1.73 without (11)

Reasons and dates are the provider's estimates, not confirmations. All injuries

Goal timing

goals per 15-minute window · last 20 v 20 matches
Penafielscored · concededLusitania FC Lourosa
  1. 641-15
  2. 4316-30
  3. 9531-45+
  4. 5446-60
  5. 3461-75
  6. 10676-90+

37:26 goals 30:20Bar and top figure: scored. Red figure: conceded. A goal from minute 76 on in 60% v 65% of their matches.

  1. 011-15
  2. 8316-30
  3. 8331-45+
  4. 2246-60
  5. 2461-75
  6. 10776-90+

Matchday 11

Liga Portugal 2 · the other 8 games
  1. Tondela11:00Farense
  2. Amarante11:00Felgueiras 1932
  3. Portimonense SAD14:00Académica
  4. Leixões18:00Chaves
  5. Vizela14:00Feirense
  6. Benfica II0–1AVS
  7. União de Leiria3–1Sporting CP II
  8. Torreense0–3Porto II
Liga Portugal 2 fixtures and results →

Updated